23 June 2010

Topic 6:STOP LOSS (part 2):mrtq13

This is a very elaborate topic,and needs extensive discussions.............There are several things we need to focus while discussing this whole issue........Say for example :1. How is the market condition now.......2. Are you at the top of market-we are at the top of the market............Aren't we??? Did anyone notice this? DSE isn't expending upward,right???3. How do you feel about large fall or short fall........?4. Your risk tolerance level..........Do you have another sources of earning money and can take too much risk?5. Your total capital...............6. Your trading system. Is it set for short term swings or long term trades..........7. Your experience............--------------------------Let's discuss the above in a very short manner..........DSE isn't in good condition. Too much inconsistency is there. Any trader should remain cautious in such situation...........So,your stops should be tight......Right......? I have seen that in the last fall recently,many became freezed and started to think if they will hold on to their stocks or sell..........There is nothing to think......The market is falling....And that is a fact! Accept the fact and act accordingly........We are at the top of DSE's history. And this is the riskiest zone! Believe it.Don't be too brave at this level!! Whatever your big brothers/so called gambler brothers say,only care about your money and be scared!! Think about it. Let's say,you have invested ur whole amount in the market. Tomorrow market has fallen 90 points like it did recently..........Then,market stops. You feel good,though ur total lose is 4% at the moment! Market stops some times,but crashes upto 300 points. Your lose reaches 15%. Now what are you gonna do? You would become freezed! You wouldn't be able to sell,because the lose is huge. The market doesn't stop.And you lose more and more everyday.Think about the Jamuna oil's holders. Everyday they lose. For last couple of months,they have been having pain............What was the point of such holding............Some are down 40%!!! Wow,what if they took 7% lose and got out this loser stock initially............???The same applies to the whole market.........Now bravity can be shown when you are at the low of the market. If you showed bravity last year,you would gain hell lotta profit..........Because the market was at its low,and going upwards...........Now we are at the top...........So,a lot of correction is expected. But alas,market never goes straight up,or down. It comes down goes up,comes down and down.............What are you gonna do!!!!Try to understand that market's situation changes,and with the changing scenario we should change our strategy...................How much you can bear in a single trade............? Did you ever give it a thought..........?I think I can take 7% lose in every trade and total 3% lose in my total equity on each month..........But what about you...........What kind of trader are you..........? Are you a very short term trader. In that case,you should not bet more than 6% lose or even 5% lose............But if you are buy and hold type of trader............You can bet 30% and even 40% lose sometimes..........But the question is where the hell you have entered the stock........If you have entered at the low of a fundamentally good stock,then taking 40% lose makes sense..........But if you have entered at the top of a fundamentally weak company,taking 40% lose or betting 40% doesn't make sense,does it.........How about your trading system...........How did you set it............I have seen all of our trading systems are for very short term trade............So,our exists should be no more than 6%..............How much experienced are you...........How much you are pshychologically capable of handling a drawdown situation............Now this seems to be the most important point..............When I begin trading with system or TA,I had hard time trading. Sometimes I used to lose my faith in it,because it just didn't give what I expected.........Year ago I bought Intech Online. I put 6% stoploss in it. After I bought,I saw it falling. And even though It didn't go below 6% lose,I sold it. Because I didn't believe that it will work,my system would work.........I got scared,and very indisciplined. After I got out,I saw Intech rocked. I got fucked up,and frustrated................I had more than 4 losing in a raw in a month sometimes. I got frustrated. I thought I may not be able to recover those loses. I felt like kicking the Trading Systems and TA. But later,I saw I not only recovered my loses,rather I was up more than the lose with the same system and strategy.Why do those happen............? Think about it.........There are several factors that work here......Lack of plan is the most crucial,and controlling mind is another important thing.........Anyone telling you that he had never a losing trade is great lier! So,except the fact that lose is a part of our trading. If we can accept it,we will be able to overcome it...........Fear matters! Did you practise your trading style and strategy in real life trading.....That is a very important thing.....Sometimes it is wise to take loses for the shake of practise only. Believe me it works.Trading seems to be a matter of experience too.Oneday will come when looking at a chart you will be able to feel what may happen and act accordingly............Whatever happens,preserve main capital..................When we are at the top of the market,long term hold strategy doesn't make sense,does it..........We never know about future. So,what's the the point of thinking about it.........We should go by strategy,and change our strategy when the market changes.........DSE has changed.......So,it is better to change our old strategy,and be quick to take profit and cut loses...

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