Forex Market Hours provided by OANDA
26 October 2012
12 August 2012
Microsoft .NET Framework 3.5 Service Pack 1
http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/confirmation.aspx?id=22
http://www.system-forex.info/2009/01/good-article-and-indicator.html
http://forexindicatortips.blogspot.com/2011/09/alternative-ichimoku-v07-mq4-download.html
http://www.desynced.net/fx/eas/mq4script-2439.php
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=190646
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=221777&page=10
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=354512
http://www.system-forex.info/2009/01/good-article-and-indicator.html
http://forexindicatortips.blogspot.com/2011/09/alternative-ichimoku-v07-mq4-download.html
http://www.desynced.net/fx/eas/mq4script-2439.php
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=190646
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=221777&page=10
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=354512
06 August 2012
29 July 2012
27 July 2012
09 June 2012
Pip Cost
Hello ,
Many people have been asking about the value per pip when trading micro lots.
The value of a pip is determined by the pair of currencies being traded, the rate at which the currency pair is trading and the size of the position being traded.
Remember a micro lot is 1k in currency traded. This is opposed to a 10k mini or 100k standard lot.
The following currency pairs (where the USD is the quoted currency) have a fixed value of $0.10 per pip per micro lot: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD.
To calculate the value of other pairs, which have a fluctuating pip value you can apply a simple calculation such as the example below.
Lets say you are trading the euro at 1.3500 for one micro lot.
When the exchange rate moves from 1.3500 to 1.3501, the value of your 1,000 Euro position has increased from $1,350 USD to $1,350.10. Pip value = $0.10.
That means if you trade a 10k lot that means you would earn $1 a pip.
.10 (per micro) x 10 = $1
K in general means 1 thousand (1 000).
1 micro lot = 1K = 1 000 units of currency,
For example if you are buying 1K (1 micro lot) of EUR/USD at $1.2000 you are buying 1 000 Euros with 1 200 US dollars.
If you are buying 10K (1 mini lot) of EUR/USD at $1.2000 you are buying 10 000 Euros with 12 000 US dollars.
If you are buying 100K (1 standard lot) of EUR/USD at $1.2000 you are buying 100 000 Euros with 120 000 US dollars.
Simplest way to understand how to calculate pip depends upon the currency pair involves. We start considering the situation when the US dollar is the quote currency as in the case of JPY/USD, GBP/USD or CHF/USD. Here calculating pip is very easy as pip has always a value of $10. As a standard Inter Bank lot size is 100000 and the pip is usually 0.01% hence the value of the pip comes to $10. So, while trading JPY/USD the market moves in your favor by 10 pips that mean you make a profit of $100.
If you want further clarification on pips you can check my blog
I'm having issues with the distance the stop order is requiring.
For example, a sell price is .63799 and the spread is 2.5
I want to set a stop at .63845 --which is 4.6 pips, correct? but it won't allow a stop below .63851, which is 5.2 pips.
Since the stop I want to set is greater than the spread, why won't it allow it?
Is there a rationale to explain this?
Originally Posted by knotgreedy
You may be misinterpreting margin as a cost. When you open one
microlot, which is 1,000 of the currency you are trading, you need at
least $2.50 in your account as margin to control the position. If you
open 10 microlots or 10,000 of the currency you are trading, you need
$25 in margin money to control the position. Here is more:
Margins and Leverage Explained | FXCM Micro Lot Spread and Margin
Many people have been asking about the value per pip when trading micro lots.
The value of a pip is determined by the pair of currencies being traded, the rate at which the currency pair is trading and the size of the position being traded.
Remember a micro lot is 1k in currency traded. This is opposed to a 10k mini or 100k standard lot.
The following currency pairs (where the USD is the quoted currency) have a fixed value of $0.10 per pip per micro lot: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD.
To calculate the value of other pairs, which have a fluctuating pip value you can apply a simple calculation such as the example below.
Lets say you are trading the euro at 1.3500 for one micro lot.
When the exchange rate moves from 1.3500 to 1.3501, the value of your 1,000 Euro position has increased from $1,350 USD to $1,350.10. Pip value = $0.10.
That means if you trade a 10k lot that means you would earn $1 a pip.
.10 (per micro) x 10 = $1
K in general means 1 thousand (1 000).
1 micro lot = 1K = 1 000 units of currency,
For example if you are buying 1K (1 micro lot) of EUR/USD at $1.2000 you are buying 1 000 Euros with 1 200 US dollars.
If you are buying 10K (1 mini lot) of EUR/USD at $1.2000 you are buying 10 000 Euros with 12 000 US dollars.
If you are buying 100K (1 standard lot) of EUR/USD at $1.2000 you are buying 100 000 Euros with 120 000 US dollars.
Simplest way to understand how to calculate pip depends upon the currency pair involves. We start considering the situation when the US dollar is the quote currency as in the case of JPY/USD, GBP/USD or CHF/USD. Here calculating pip is very easy as pip has always a value of $10. As a standard Inter Bank lot size is 100000 and the pip is usually 0.01% hence the value of the pip comes to $10. So, while trading JPY/USD the market moves in your favor by 10 pips that mean you make a profit of $100.
If you want further clarification on pips you can check my blog
pips and stops micro
I think I understand the fractional pip concept and the bid/ask--buy/sell --spread that determines where you will be exiting BUTI'm having issues with the distance the stop order is requiring.
For example, a sell price is .63799 and the spread is 2.5
I want to set a stop at .63845 --which is 4.6 pips, correct? but it won't allow a stop below .63851, which is 5.2 pips.
Since the stop I want to set is greater than the spread, why won't it allow it?
Is there a rationale to explain this?
Originally Posted by knotgreedy
Margins and Leverage Explained | FXCM Micro Lot Spread and Margin
Enroll in our online DailyFX Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in our online courses in the past. The new DailyFX Course has nearly 600 minutes of content delivered via video so you can learn at your own pace. Join the instructors in live webinars where they will show you how to use the highlighted tool in current market conditions. Click here to get more information.
06 May 2012
Excellent website..Cool
I Got this address from net.I would like to share it ..all credit goes to original host/hostes
http://www.brtricks.com/2012/05/license-keys-of-kaspersky-products-05th.html
http://www.brtricks.com/2012/05/license-keys-of-kaspersky-products-05th.html
21 April 2012
ZIG HI LO SAR HH LL TS TC
/*
Zig-Hi-Zag-Lo
To use to plot the true Peak High and Trough Low
for study of chart pattern, to create trading system
Modified from http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-ZigZag_HiLo.html
By TohMz
*/
pr=Param("ZigZag change amount", 5, 0.1,100,0.1);
pk=PeakBars(H,pr)==0;
tr=TroughBars(L,pr)==0;
zzHi=Zig(H,pr);
zzLo=Zig(L,pr);
Avg=(zzHi+zzLo)/2;
x=IIf(pk,zzHi,IIf(tr,zzLo,IIf(Avg>Ref(Avg,-1),H,L)));
zzHiLo=Zig(x,pr);
Plot( zzHiLo, "", ParamColor("Color",colorRed), ParamStyle("Style"));
//-- Delete below, to allow attach to any price chart
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}}- {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} O= %g, H= %g, L= %g, C= %g (%.1f%%) V= " +WriteVal( V, 1.0 ) +"\n{{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C, SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 )) ));
PriceStyle = GetPriceStyle();
PriceStyleOpt = ParamStyle("Style") | PriceStyle;
if (PriceStyle==styleCandle)
Plot( C, "", colorWhite, PriceStyleOpt);
else
Plot( C, "", IIf( Close >= Ref(C, -1), colorBlue, colorRed ), PriceStyleOpt);
_SECTION_BEGIN("Sup / Res Lines");
SRswitch = ParamToggle("Sup / Res Lines","On,Off");
CHLswitch = ParamToggle("Hi Low / Close","Hi Low,Close");
NoLines = Param("No of Lines",3,1,10,1);
Sen = Param("Sensitivity",5,1,100,1);
Rcolor=ParamColor( "Res Color", colorGreen );
Rstyle=ParamStyle( "Res Style", styleLine );
Scolor=ParamColor( "Sup Color", colorBrown );
Sstyle=ParamStyle( "Sup Style", styleLine );
y=0;
x=0;
for( i = 1; i < NoLines+1 ; i++ ) { Y[i]=LastValue(Peak(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i)); x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(PeakBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i)); Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 ); Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Rcolor, Rstyle ); Y[i]=LastValue(Trough(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i)); x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(TroughBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i)); Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 ); Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Scolor, Sstyle ); } _SECTION_END(); _SECTION_BEGIN("Pivot Indicator"); Q=Param("% Change",2,1,10,1); Z= Zig(C,q ) ; HH=((Z Ref(Z,-2)) AND (Peak(z,q,1 ) >Peak(Z,q,2)));
LH=((Z Ref(Z,-2)) AND (Peak(Z,q,1 ) Ref(Z,-1) AND Ref(Z,-1) < Ref(Z,-2)) AND (Trough(Z,q,1 ) >Trough(Z,q,2)));
LL=((Z>Ref(Z,-1) AND Ref(Z,-1) < Ref(Z,-2)) AND (Trough(Z,q,1 )
dist = 0.5*ATR(20);
for( i = 0; i < BarCount; i++ )
{
if( HH [i]) PlotText( "HH", i, H[ i ]+dist[i], colorGreen );
if( LH [i]) PlotText( "LH", i, H[ i ]+dist[i], colorRed );
if( HL [i] ) PlotText( "HL", i, L[ i ]-dist[i], colorGreen);
if( LL[i] ) PlotText( "LL", i, L[ i ]-dist[i], colorRed );
}
_SECTION_END();
Zig-Hi-Zag-Lo
To use to plot the true Peak High and Trough Low
for study of chart pattern, to create trading system
Modified from http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-ZigZag_HiLo.html
By TohMz
*/
pr=Param("ZigZag change amount", 5, 0.1,100,0.1);
pk=PeakBars(H,pr)==0;
tr=TroughBars(L,pr)==0;
zzHi=Zig(H,pr);
zzLo=Zig(L,pr);
Avg=(zzHi+zzLo)/2;
x=IIf(pk,zzHi,IIf(tr,zzLo,IIf(Avg>Ref(Avg,-1),H,L)));
zzHiLo=Zig(x,pr);
Plot( zzHiLo, "", ParamColor("Color",colorRed), ParamStyle("Style"));
//-- Delete below, to allow attach to any price chart
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}}- {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} O= %g, H= %g, L= %g, C= %g (%.1f%%) V= " +WriteVal( V, 1.0 ) +"\n{{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C, SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 )) ));
PriceStyle = GetPriceStyle();
PriceStyleOpt = ParamStyle("Style") | PriceStyle;
if (PriceStyle==styleCandle)
Plot( C, "", colorWhite, PriceStyleOpt);
else
Plot( C, "", IIf( Close >= Ref(C, -1), colorBlue, colorRed ), PriceStyleOpt);
_SECTION_BEGIN("Sup / Res Lines");
SRswitch = ParamToggle("Sup / Res Lines","On,Off");
CHLswitch = ParamToggle("Hi Low / Close","Hi Low,Close");
NoLines = Param("No of Lines",3,1,10,1);
Sen = Param("Sensitivity",5,1,100,1);
Rcolor=ParamColor( "Res Color", colorGreen );
Rstyle=ParamStyle( "Res Style", styleLine );
Scolor=ParamColor( "Sup Color", colorBrown );
Sstyle=ParamStyle( "Sup Style", styleLine );
y=0;
x=0;
for( i = 1; i < NoLines+1 ; i++ ) { Y[i]=LastValue(Peak(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i)); x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(PeakBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i)); Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 ); Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Rcolor, Rstyle ); Y[i]=LastValue(Trough(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i)); x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(TroughBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i)); Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 ); Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Scolor, Sstyle ); } _SECTION_END(); _SECTION_BEGIN("Pivot Indicator"); Q=Param("% Change",2,1,10,1); Z= Zig(C,q ) ; HH=((Z
LH=((Z
LL=((Z>Ref(Z,-1) AND Ref(Z,-1) < Ref(Z,-2)) AND (Trough(Z,q,1 )
dist = 0.5*ATR(20);
for( i = 0; i < BarCount; i++ )
{
if( HH [i]) PlotText( "HH", i, H[ i ]+dist[i], colorGreen );
if( LH [i]) PlotText( "LH", i, H[ i ]+dist[i], colorRed );
if( HL [i] ) PlotText( "HL", i, L[ i ]-dist[i], colorGreen);
if( LL[i] ) PlotText( "LL", i, L[ i ]-dist[i], colorRed );
}
_SECTION_END();
16 April 2012
add this line to explore afl
all credit goes to Avadhoot Nasikkar
Have you ever perturbed with ‘1’ & ‘0’ in the Buy/Sell column of the exploration window in the Amibroker?
Just Rejoice!
Put this simple line in your exploration and you shall see ‘Buy’ & ‘Sell’ in the exploration window that too with colour background, green for Buy and Red for Sell.
And that line is-
AddTextColumn( WriteIf(Buy,"BUY",WriteIf(Sell,"SELL","")) , "Buy/Sell", 1.2 , colorBlack, IIf( Buy, colorLime,IIf(Sell,colorRed,colorGreen) ));
Have you ever perturbed with ‘1’ & ‘0’ in the Buy/Sell column of the exploration window in the Amibroker?
Just Rejoice!
Put this simple line in your exploration and you shall see ‘Buy’ & ‘Sell’ in the exploration window that too with colour background, green for Buy and Red for Sell.
And that line is-
AddTextColumn( WriteIf(Buy,"BUY",WriteIf(Sell,"SELL","")) , "Buy/Sell", 1.2 , colorBlack, IIf( Buy, colorLime,IIf(Sell,colorRed,colorGreen) ));
05 April 2012
25 March 2012
WAVE ATR
// Supertrend - Translated from Kolier MQ4
// see: http://kolier.li/indicator/kolier-supertrend-indi
// translation in Amibroker AFL code by E.M.Pottasch, 2011
procedure calcTrend_proc(ATR_Period,tr,ATR_Multiplier,TrendMode,CalcPrice)
{
global buffer_line_down;
global buffer_line_up;
buffer_line_down = Null;
buffer_line_up = Null;
PHASE_NONE = 0;
PHASE_BUY = 1;
PHASE_SELL = -1;
phase=PHASE_NONE;
band_upper = 0;band_lower = 0;
for(i = ATR_Period + 1; i < BarCount; i++) { band_upper = CalcPrice[i] + ATR_Multiplier * tr[i]; band_lower = CalcPrice[i] - ATR_Multiplier * tr[i]; if(phase==PHASE_NONE) { buffer_line_up[i] = CalcPrice[i]; buffer_line_down[i] = CalcPrice[i]; } if(phase!=PHASE_BUY && Close[i]>buffer_line_down[i-1] && !IsEmpty(buffer_line_down[i-1]))
{
phase = PHASE_BUY;
buffer_line_up[i] = band_lower;
buffer_line_up[i-1] = buffer_line_down[i-1];
}
if(phase!=PHASE_SELL && Close[i]buffer_line_up[i-1])
{
buffer_line_up[i] = band_lower;
}
else
{
buffer_line_up[i] = buffer_line_up[i-1];
}
}
if(phase==PHASE_SELL && ((TrendMode==0 && !IsEmpty(buffer_line_down[i-2])) || TrendMode==1) )
{
if(band_upperRef(Avg,-1),H,L)));
EW=Zig(RetroSuccessSecret,pr);
//{ Plot on price chart }
if (Option==0)
Plot(EW, "EW", ParamColor("Color", colorBrown), ParamStyle("Style", styleNoLabel|styleThick));
else
{
//{ Plot on own window }
Plot(EWbuy-EWsell, "EW2", ParamColor("Color", colorRed), ParamStyle("Style", styleNoLabel|styleThick));
}
//{ Buy/Sell Elliot Wave stuff }
EWbuy=TroughBars(EW,pr)==1;
EWsell=PeakBars(EW,pr)==1;
Plot(C,"",47,128+4);
PlotShapes(EWbuy*shapeUpArrow,5,0,L,-5);
PlotShapes(EWsell*shapeDownArrow,4,0,H,-5);
//-- Script End -------
_SECTION_END();
// see: http://kolier.li/indicator/kolier-supertrend-indi
// translation in Amibroker AFL code by E.M.Pottasch, 2011
procedure calcTrend_proc(ATR_Period,tr,ATR_Multiplier,TrendMode,CalcPrice)
{
global buffer_line_down;
global buffer_line_up;
buffer_line_down = Null;
buffer_line_up = Null;
PHASE_NONE = 0;
PHASE_BUY = 1;
PHASE_SELL = -1;
phase=PHASE_NONE;
band_upper = 0;band_lower = 0;
for(i = ATR_Period + 1; i < BarCount; i++) { band_upper = CalcPrice[i] + ATR_Multiplier * tr[i]; band_lower = CalcPrice[i] - ATR_Multiplier * tr[i]; if(phase==PHASE_NONE) { buffer_line_up[i] = CalcPrice[i]; buffer_line_down[i] = CalcPrice[i]; } if(phase!=PHASE_BUY && Close[i]>buffer_line_down[i-1] && !IsEmpty(buffer_line_down[i-1]))
{
phase = PHASE_BUY;
buffer_line_up[i] = band_lower;
buffer_line_up[i-1] = buffer_line_down[i-1];
}
if(phase!=PHASE_SELL && Close[i]
{
buffer_line_up[i] = band_lower;
}
else
{
buffer_line_up[i] = buffer_line_up[i-1];
}
}
if(phase==PHASE_SELL && ((TrendMode==0 && !IsEmpty(buffer_line_down[i-2])) || TrendMode==1) )
{
if(band_upper
EW=Zig(RetroSuccessSecret,pr);
//{ Plot on price chart }
if (Option==0)
Plot(EW, "EW", ParamColor("Color", colorBrown), ParamStyle("Style", styleNoLabel|styleThick));
else
{
//{ Plot on own window }
Plot(EWbuy-EWsell, "EW2", ParamColor("Color", colorRed), ParamStyle("Style", styleNoLabel|styleThick));
}
//{ Buy/Sell Elliot Wave stuff }
EWbuy=TroughBars(EW,pr)==1;
EWsell=PeakBars(EW,pr)==1;
Plot(C,"",47,128+4);
PlotShapes(EWbuy*shapeUpArrow,5,0,L,-5);
PlotShapes(EWsell*shapeDownArrow,4,0,H,-5);
//-- Script End -------
_SECTION_END();
ZIG HI LO
/*
Zig-Hi-Zag-Lo
To use to plot the true Peak High and Trough Low
for study of chart pattern, to create trading system
Modified from http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-ZigZag_HiLo.html
By TohMz
*/
pr=Param("ZigZag change amount", 5, 0.1,100,0.1);
pk=PeakBars(H,pr)==0;
tr=TroughBars(L,pr)==0;
zzHi=Zig(H,pr);
zzLo=Zig(L,pr);
Avg=(zzHi+zzLo)/2;
x=IIf(pk,zzHi,IIf(tr,zzLo,IIf(Avg>Ref(Avg,-1),H,L)));
zzHiLo=Zig(x,pr);
Plot( zzHiLo, "", ParamColor("Color",colorRed), ParamStyle("Style"));
//-- Delete below, to allow attach to any price chart
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}}- {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} O= %g, H= %g, L= %g, C= %g (%.1f%%) V= " +WriteVal( V, 1.0 ) +"\n{{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C, SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 )) ));
PriceStyle = GetPriceStyle();
PriceStyleOpt = ParamStyle("Style") | PriceStyle;
if (PriceStyle==styleCandle)
Plot( C, "", colorWhite, PriceStyleOpt);
else
Plot( C, "", IIf( Close >= Ref(C, -1), colorBlue, colorRed ), PriceStyleOpt);
_SECTION_BEGIN("Sup / Res Lines");
SRswitch = ParamToggle("Sup / Res Lines","On,Off");
CHLswitch = ParamToggle("Hi Low / Close","Hi Low,Close");
NoLines = Param("No of Lines",3,1,10,1);
Sen = Param("Sensitivity",5,1,100,1);
Rcolor=ParamColor( "Res Color", colorGreen );
Rstyle=ParamStyle( "Res Style", styleLine );
Scolor=ParamColor( "Sup Color", colorBrown );
Sstyle=ParamStyle( "Sup Style", styleLine );
y=0;
x=0;
for( i = 1; i < NoLines+1 ; i++ )
{
Y[i]=LastValue(Peak(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i));
x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(PeakBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i));
Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 );
Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Rcolor, Rstyle );
Y[i]=LastValue(Trough(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i));
x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(TroughBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i));
Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 );
Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Scolor, Sstyle );
}
_SECTION_END();
Zig-Hi-Zag-Lo
To use to plot the true Peak High and Trough Low
for study of chart pattern, to create trading system
Modified from http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-ZigZag_HiLo.html
By TohMz
*/
pr=Param("ZigZag change amount", 5, 0.1,100,0.1);
pk=PeakBars(H,pr)==0;
tr=TroughBars(L,pr)==0;
zzHi=Zig(H,pr);
zzLo=Zig(L,pr);
Avg=(zzHi+zzLo)/2;
x=IIf(pk,zzHi,IIf(tr,zzLo,IIf(Avg>Ref(Avg,-1),H,L)));
zzHiLo=Zig(x,pr);
Plot( zzHiLo, "", ParamColor("Color",colorRed), ParamStyle("Style"));
//-- Delete below, to allow attach to any price chart
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}}- {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} O= %g, H= %g, L= %g, C= %g (%.1f%%) V= " +WriteVal( V, 1.0 ) +"\n{{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C, SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 )) ));
PriceStyle = GetPriceStyle();
PriceStyleOpt = ParamStyle("Style") | PriceStyle;
if (PriceStyle==styleCandle)
Plot( C, "", colorWhite, PriceStyleOpt);
else
Plot( C, "", IIf( Close >= Ref(C, -1), colorBlue, colorRed ), PriceStyleOpt);
_SECTION_BEGIN("Sup / Res Lines");
SRswitch = ParamToggle("Sup / Res Lines","On,Off");
CHLswitch = ParamToggle("Hi Low / Close","Hi Low,Close");
NoLines = Param("No of Lines",3,1,10,1);
Sen = Param("Sensitivity",5,1,100,1);
Rcolor=ParamColor( "Res Color", colorGreen );
Rstyle=ParamStyle( "Res Style", styleLine );
Scolor=ParamColor( "Sup Color", colorBrown );
Sstyle=ParamStyle( "Sup Style", styleLine );
y=0;
x=0;
for( i = 1; i < NoLines+1 ; i++ )
{
Y[i]=LastValue(Peak(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i));
x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(PeakBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,H),Sen,i));
Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 );
Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Rcolor, Rstyle );
Y[i]=LastValue(Trough(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i));
x[i]=BarCount - 1 - LastValue(TroughBars(IIf(CHLswitch,C,L),Sen,i));
Line = LineArray( x[i], y[i], Null, y[i], 1 );
Plot( IIf(SRswitch,Null,Line), "", Scolor, Sstyle );
}
_SECTION_END();
FVE
_SECTION_BEGIN("FVE INTRA");
Period = Param("FVE period", 22, 10, 80, 1 );
MF = C - (H+L)/2 + Avg - Ref( Avg, -1 );
Vc = IIf( MF > 0.003 * C, V,
IIf( MF < -0.003 * C, -V, 0 ) ); FVE = Sum( Vc, Period )/MA( V, Period )/Period * 100; Plot( FVE, "FVE", colorLime ); GraphXSpace = 3; Buy = Cross( FVE, -5 ) AND LinRegSlope( FVE, 35 ) > 0 AND
LinRegSlope( Close, 35 ) < 0;
Sell = LinRegSlope( FVE, 25 ) < 0 OR Ref( Buy, -50 );
_SECTION_END();
Period = Param("FVE period", 22, 10, 80, 1 );
MF = C - (H+L)/2 + Avg - Ref( Avg, -1 );
Vc = IIf( MF > 0.003 * C, V,
IIf( MF < -0.003 * C, -V, 0 ) ); FVE = Sum( Vc, Period )/MA( V, Period )/Period * 100; Plot( FVE, "FVE", colorLime ); GraphXSpace = 3; Buy = Cross( FVE, -5 ) AND LinRegSlope( FVE, 35 ) > 0 AND
LinRegSlope( Close, 35 ) < 0;
Sell = LinRegSlope( FVE, 25 ) < 0 OR Ref( Buy, -50 );
_SECTION_END();
FVE
_SECTION_BEGIN("FVE INTRA");
Period = Param("FVE period", 22, 10, 80, 1 );
MF = C - (H+L)/2 + Avg - Ref( Avg, -1 );
Vc = IIf( MF > 0.003 * C, V,
IIf( MF < -0.003 * C, -V, 0 ) ); FVE = Sum( Vc, Period )/MA( V, Period )/Period * 100; Plot( FVE, "FVE", colorLime ); GraphXSpace = 3; Buy = Cross( FVE, -5 ) AND LinRegSlope( FVE, 35 ) > 0 AND
LinRegSlope( Close, 35 ) < 0;
Sell = LinRegSlope( FVE, 25 ) < 0 OR Ref( Buy, -50 );
_SECTION_END();
Period = Param("FVE period", 22, 10, 80, 1 );
MF = C - (H+L)/2 + Avg - Ref( Avg, -1 );
Vc = IIf( MF > 0.003 * C, V,
IIf( MF < -0.003 * C, -V, 0 ) ); FVE = Sum( Vc, Period )/MA( V, Period )/Period * 100; Plot( FVE, "FVE", colorLime ); GraphXSpace = 3; Buy = Cross( FVE, -5 ) AND LinRegSlope( FVE, 35 ) > 0 AND
LinRegSlope( Close, 35 ) < 0;
Sell = LinRegSlope( FVE, 25 ) < 0 OR Ref( Buy, -50 );
_SECTION_END();
FVE
_SECTION_BEGIN("FVE INTRA");
Period = Param("FVE period", 22, 10, 80, 1 );
MF = C - (H+L)/2 + Avg - Ref( Avg, -1 );
Vc = IIf( MF > 0.003 * C, V,
IIf( MF < -0.003 * C, -V, 0 ) ); FVE = Sum( Vc, Period )/MA( V, Period )/Period * 100; Plot( FVE, "FVE", colorLime ); GraphXSpace = 3; Buy = Cross( FVE, -5 ) AND LinRegSlope( FVE, 35 ) > 0 AND
LinRegSlope( Close, 35 ) < 0;
Sell = LinRegSlope( FVE, 25 ) < 0 OR Ref( Buy, -50 );
_SECTION_END();
Period = Param("FVE period", 22, 10, 80, 1 );
MF = C - (H+L)/2 + Avg - Ref( Avg, -1 );
Vc = IIf( MF > 0.003 * C, V,
IIf( MF < -0.003 * C, -V, 0 ) ); FVE = Sum( Vc, Period )/MA( V, Period )/Period * 100; Plot( FVE, "FVE", colorLime ); GraphXSpace = 3; Buy = Cross( FVE, -5 ) AND LinRegSlope( FVE, 35 ) > 0 AND
LinRegSlope( Close, 35 ) < 0;
Sell = LinRegSlope( FVE, 25 ) < 0 OR Ref( Buy, -50 );
_SECTION_END();
STOCH K CROSS STOCH D +- TREND LINE SHOW
_SECTION_BEGIN("stoch k cross stoch d +ve");
/*Slow Stochastic and Trendlines
for Indicator Builder,
by Dimitris Tsokakis*/
D1=14;
MaxGraph=8;
ST3=StochK(D1);
ST33=StochD(D1);
Graph0=ST3;
Graph1=ST33;
Title=Name()+" - %K="+WriteVal(st3,FORMAT=1.2)+", %D="+
WriteVal(ST33,FORMAT=1.2)+
WriteIf(Cross(st3,st33)," POSITIVE CROSS"," ")+
WriteIf(Cross(ST33,ST3)," NEGATIVE CROSS","");
x = Cum(1);
per = 0.1;
s1=st33;
s11=st33;
pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
dtS =endt-startt;
endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;
bS = endS;
trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
Graph6 = IIf(x>startt-1 AND TRENDLINES>0 AND TRENDLINES<100,trendlineS,-1e10); Graph6Style = 1; Graph6Color = 1; pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0; endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 )); startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 )); dtR =endt1-startt1; endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) ); startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 )); aR = (endR-startR)/dtR; bR = endR; trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR; Graph7 = IIf(x>startT1-1 AND TRENDLINER>0 AND
TRENDLINER<100,trendlineR,-1e10);
Graph7Style = 1;
Graph7Color = 1;
_SECTION_END();
/*Slow Stochastic and Trendlines
for Indicator Builder,
by Dimitris Tsokakis*/
D1=14;
MaxGraph=8;
ST3=StochK(D1);
ST33=StochD(D1);
Graph0=ST3;
Graph1=ST33;
Title=Name()+" - %K="+WriteVal(st3,FORMAT=1.2)+", %D="+
WriteVal(ST33,FORMAT=1.2)+
WriteIf(Cross(st3,st33)," POSITIVE CROSS"," ")+
WriteIf(Cross(ST33,ST3)," NEGATIVE CROSS","");
x = Cum(1);
per = 0.1;
s1=st33;
s11=st33;
pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
dtS =endt-startt;
endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;
bS = endS;
trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
Graph6 = IIf(x>startt-1 AND TRENDLINES>0 AND TRENDLINES<100,trendlineS,-1e10); Graph6Style = 1; Graph6Color = 1; pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0; endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 )); startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 )); dtR =endt1-startt1; endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) ); startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 )); aR = (endR-startR)/dtR; bR = endR; trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR; Graph7 = IIf(x>startT1-1 AND TRENDLINER>0 AND
TRENDLINER<100,trendlineR,-1e10);
Graph7Style = 1;
Graph7Color = 1;
_SECTION_END();
10 February 2012
31 January 2012
Fibonacci Numbers
Overview
Fibonacci numbers are the result of work by Leonardo Fibonacci in the early 1200's while studying the Great Pyramid of Gizeh. The fibonacci series is a numerical sequence comprised of adding the previous numbers together, i.e.,
(1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233 etc..)
An interesting property of these numbers is that as the series proceeds, any given number is 1.618 times the preceding number and 0.618% of the next number.
(34/55 = 55/89 = 144/233 =0.618) (55/34 =89/55 =233/144 =1.618), and 1.618 =1/0.618.
This properties of the fibonacci series occur throughout nature, science and math and is the number 0.618 is often referred to as the "golden ratio" as it is the root of the following polynomial x^2+x-1=0 which can be rearranged to x= 1/(1+x).
So that's were the fib # 0.618 comes from. The other fibs 0.382 and 0.5 commonly used in technical analysis have a less impressive background but are just as powerful in Technical analysis.
0.382=(1-.618)=(0.618*0.618)
and 0.5 is the mean of the two numbers.
Other neat fib facts (0.618*(1+0.618)=1 and (0.382*(1+.618))=0.618.
Use of Fibonacci #'s in Technical Analysis
Fibonacci numbers are commonly used in Technical Analysis with or without a knowledge of Elliot wave analysis to determine potential support, resistance, and price objectives. 38.2% retracements usually imply that the prior trend will continue, 61.8% retracements imply a new trend is establishing itself. A 50% retracement implies indecision. 38.2% retracements are considered nautral retracements in a healthy trend.
ABC's
Price objectives for a natural retracement (38.2%) can be determined by adding (or subtracting in a downtrend) the magnitude of the previous trend to the 38.2% retracement. After the 38.2% retracement the stock should break through the previous swing point(B) on heavier volume. If the volume isn't there the magnitude of the move will usually be diminished, especially on very low volume.
A-B =C-D when B-C =38.2% of A-B
61.8% retracements are warning signs of a potential trend changes. For a more detailed explanation of Fibonacci price projections and price wave theory I highly recommend the Elliot Wave Principle links below.
Confluence Confluence occurs when you take fibonacci projections off of multiple trends and get the same number and strengthens when it corresponds with other technical advents such as gaps, swing high/lows, chart indicators crossovers (MACD, RSI, Stochastics, etc.), trading congestion, etc. The more confluence, the more significant the level. I really take notice when I get two or more fib #s (say a 38.2% and 61.8%) to correspond with a gap in the chart or a swing high. Confluence is very powerful as it combines multiple technical analysis techniques to arrive at the same conclusion, and should be relied on accordingly IMHO
Trading Strageties JMHO
Once a new swing point is established in an equity, a new set of fibonacci numbers should be calculated, and confluence checked to determine potential support/resistance levels and trading strategies. (let the Fibonacci Calculator do most of the work for you). For instance:
If a stock is trending up, one may watch it until it forms a top then calculate the fibs. If she retraces 38.2% and turns with confluence, one could bite with an automatic stop under the 50% retracement and objective of the ABC. The Risk/Reward ratio for that trade is 0.118. (If you got stopped out 8 times and hit once you would have a 5.6% profit).
If she's trending down, you could bite at the 38.2% bounce with a stop at the 50% and get the same risk/reward ratio. With both strategies it is critical for the volume to be heavier on the swing point breakout.
If a position is going with you and you're looking for an exit point, calculate the 38.2% fib once a top is clear and put a stop below it. Won't get you out at the top but you may not miss that monster rally either.
Think a stock is a dog but it's trading at it's high wait for a 61.8% retracement from the last trend and sell it, with the stop below the 50% retracement.
Fibonacci numbers are the result of work by Leonardo Fibonacci in the early 1200's while studying the Great Pyramid of Gizeh. The fibonacci series is a numerical sequence comprised of adding the previous numbers together, i.e.,
(1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233 etc..)
An interesting property of these numbers is that as the series proceeds, any given number is 1.618 times the preceding number and 0.618% of the next number.
(34/55 = 55/89 = 144/233 =0.618) (55/34 =89/55 =233/144 =1.618), and 1.618 =1/0.618.
This properties of the fibonacci series occur throughout nature, science and math and is the number 0.618 is often referred to as the "golden ratio" as it is the root of the following polynomial x^2+x-1=0 which can be rearranged to x= 1/(1+x).
So that's were the fib # 0.618 comes from. The other fibs 0.382 and 0.5 commonly used in technical analysis have a less impressive background but are just as powerful in Technical analysis.
0.382=(1-.618)=(0.618*0.618)
and 0.5 is the mean of the two numbers.
Other neat fib facts (0.618*(1+0.618)=1 and (0.382*(1+.618))=0.618.
Use of Fibonacci #'s in Technical Analysis
Fibonacci numbers are commonly used in Technical Analysis with or without a knowledge of Elliot wave analysis to determine potential support, resistance, and price objectives. 38.2% retracements usually imply that the prior trend will continue, 61.8% retracements imply a new trend is establishing itself. A 50% retracement implies indecision. 38.2% retracements are considered nautral retracements in a healthy trend.
ABC's
Price objectives for a natural retracement (38.2%) can be determined by adding (or subtracting in a downtrend) the magnitude of the previous trend to the 38.2% retracement. After the 38.2% retracement the stock should break through the previous swing point(B) on heavier volume. If the volume isn't there the magnitude of the move will usually be diminished, especially on very low volume.
A-B =C-D when B-C =38.2% of A-B
61.8% retracements are warning signs of a potential trend changes. For a more detailed explanation of Fibonacci price projections and price wave theory I highly recommend the Elliot Wave Principle links below.
Confluence Confluence occurs when you take fibonacci projections off of multiple trends and get the same number and strengthens when it corresponds with other technical advents such as gaps, swing high/lows, chart indicators crossovers (MACD, RSI, Stochastics, etc.), trading congestion, etc. The more confluence, the more significant the level. I really take notice when I get two or more fib #s (say a 38.2% and 61.8%) to correspond with a gap in the chart or a swing high. Confluence is very powerful as it combines multiple technical analysis techniques to arrive at the same conclusion, and should be relied on accordingly IMHO
Trading Strageties JMHO
Once a new swing point is established in an equity, a new set of fibonacci numbers should be calculated, and confluence checked to determine potential support/resistance levels and trading strategies. (let the Fibonacci Calculator do most of the work for you). For instance:
If a stock is trending up, one may watch it until it forms a top then calculate the fibs. If she retraces 38.2% and turns with confluence, one could bite with an automatic stop under the 50% retracement and objective of the ABC. The Risk/Reward ratio for that trade is 0.118. (If you got stopped out 8 times and hit once you would have a 5.6% profit).
If she's trending down, you could bite at the 38.2% bounce with a stop at the 50% and get the same risk/reward ratio. With both strategies it is critical for the volume to be heavier on the swing point breakout.
If a position is going with you and you're looking for an exit point, calculate the 38.2% fib once a top is clear and put a stop below it. Won't get you out at the top but you may not miss that monster rally either.
Think a stock is a dog but it's trading at it's high wait for a 61.8% retracement from the last trend and sell it, with the stop below the 50% retracement.
20 January 2012
Bob-Marley-The-Wailers-Get-Up-Stand-Up My favorite (inspirational Song)
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight!
Preacherman, don't tell me,
Heaven is under the earth.
I know you don't know
What life is really worth.
It's not all that glitters is gold;
'Alf the story has never been told:
So now you see the light, eh!
Stand up for your rights. Come on!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight!
Most people think,
Great God will come from the skies,
Take away everything
And make everybody feel high.
But if you know what life is worth,
You will look for yours on earth:
And now you see the light,
You stand up for your rights. Jah!
Get up, stand up! (Jah, Jah!)
Stand up for your rights! (Oh-hoo!)
Get up, stand up! (Get up, stand up!)
Don't give up the fight! (Life is your right!)
Get up, stand up! (So we can't give up the fight!)
Stand up for your rights! (Lord, Lord!)
Get up, stand up! (Keep on struggling on!)
Don't give up the fight! (Yeah!)
We sick an' tired of-a your ism-skism game -
Dyin' 'n' goin' to heaven in-a Jesus' name, Lord.
We know when we understand:
Almighty God is a living man.
You can fool some people sometimes,
But you can't fool all the people all the time.
So now we see the light (What you gonna do?),
We gonna stand up for our rights! (Yeah, yeah, yeah!)
So you better:
Get up, stand up! (In the morning! Git it up!)
Stand up for your rights! (Stand up for our rights!)
Get up, stand up!
Don't give up the fight! (Don't give it up, don't give it up!)
Get up, stand up! (Get up, stand up!)
Stand up for your rights! (Get up, stand up!)
Get up, stand up! ( ... )
Don't give up the fight! (Get up, stand up!)
Get up, stand up! ( ... )
Stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up!
Don't give up the fight! /fadeout/
The lyrics for this 1973 track were written by Bob Marley and Peter Tosh who were influenced mainly by their Jamaican upbringing. The song is basically about the fight for acceptance of their Rastafarian religion and the need to take action to avoid oppression, however, much of the inspiration appears to have come from another song `Slippin' Into Darkness' by War.
The meaning behind the lyrics can be interpreted as both religious and anti-religious depending on your point of view. On one hand, the line, `Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights,' can be seen as a rallying call to stand up and demand respect for the Rastafarian religion. On the other hand, the lines, `Preacher man don't tell me, heaven is under the earth, I know you don't know, what life is really worth,' suggest hanging on to freedom of thought rather than the words of religious leaders.
In the track by War, the lyrics warn of the thin line between sanity and insanity and how your own thoughts can be enough to push you over the edge into darkness. In this song, the lyrics tell us that religion can also be responsible for altering the way some people think with the lines, `Alf the story has never been told, so now you see the light, eh!'
There may well be some underlying political as well as social undertones but the main message in the lyrics is to live for the here and now; not to wait for the promised ever after.
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight!
Preacherman, don't tell me,
Heaven is under the earth.
I know you don't know
What life is really worth.
It's not all that glitters is gold;
'Alf the story has never been told:
So now you see the light, eh!
Stand up for your rights. Come on!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight!
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight!
Most people think,
Great God will come from the skies,
Take away everything
And make everybody feel high.
But if you know what life is worth,
You will look for yours on earth:
And now you see the light,
You stand up for your rights. Jah!
Get up, stand up! (Jah, Jah!)
Stand up for your rights! (Oh-hoo!)
Get up, stand up! (Get up, stand up!)
Don't give up the fight! (Life is your right!)
Get up, stand up! (So we can't give up the fight!)
Stand up for your rights! (Lord, Lord!)
Get up, stand up! (Keep on struggling on!)
Don't give up the fight! (Yeah!)
We sick an' tired of-a your ism-skism game -
Dyin' 'n' goin' to heaven in-a Jesus' name, Lord.
We know when we understand:
Almighty God is a living man.
You can fool some people sometimes,
But you can't fool all the people all the time.
So now we see the light (What you gonna do?),
We gonna stand up for our rights! (Yeah, yeah, yeah!)
So you better:
Get up, stand up! (In the morning! Git it up!)
Stand up for your rights! (Stand up for our rights!)
Get up, stand up!
Don't give up the fight! (Don't give it up, don't give it up!)
Get up, stand up! (Get up, stand up!)
Stand up for your rights! (Get up, stand up!)
Get up, stand up! ( ... )
Don't give up the fight! (Get up, stand up!)
Get up, stand up! ( ... )
Stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up!
Don't give up the fight! /fadeout/
The lyrics for this 1973 track were written by Bob Marley and Peter Tosh who were influenced mainly by their Jamaican upbringing. The song is basically about the fight for acceptance of their Rastafarian religion and the need to take action to avoid oppression, however, much of the inspiration appears to have come from another song `Slippin' Into Darkness' by War.
The meaning behind the lyrics can be interpreted as both religious and anti-religious depending on your point of view. On one hand, the line, `Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights,' can be seen as a rallying call to stand up and demand respect for the Rastafarian religion. On the other hand, the lines, `Preacher man don't tell me, heaven is under the earth, I know you don't know, what life is really worth,' suggest hanging on to freedom of thought rather than the words of religious leaders.
In the track by War, the lyrics warn of the thin line between sanity and insanity and how your own thoughts can be enough to push you over the edge into darkness. In this song, the lyrics tell us that religion can also be responsible for altering the way some people think with the lines, `Alf the story has never been told, so now you see the light, eh!'
There may well be some underlying political as well as social undertones but the main message in the lyrics is to live for the here and now; not to wait for the promised ever after.
14 January 2012
Buying Stocks When The Price Goes Down: Big Mistake?
The strategy of "averaging down", as the term implies, involves investing additional amounts in a financial instrument or asset if it declines significantly in price after the original investment is made. It's true that this action brings down the average cost of the instrument or asset, but will it lead to great returns or just to a larger share of a losing investment? Read on to find out.
Tutorial: The World's Greatest Investors
Conflicting Opinions
There is radical difference of opinion among investors and traders about the viability of the averaging down strategy. Proponents of the strategy view averaging down as a cost-effective approach to wealth accumulation; opponents view it as a recipe for disaster.
The strategy is often favored by investors who have a long-term investment horizon and a contrarian approach to investing. A contrarian approach refers to a style of investing that is against, or contrary, to the prevailing investment trend. (Learn how these investors profit from market fear in Buy When There's Blood In The Streets.)
For example, suppose that a long-term investor holds Widget Co. stock in his or her portfolio and believes that the outlook for Widget Co. is positive. This investor may be inclined to view a sharp decline in the stock as a buying opportunity, and probably also has the contrarian view that others are being unduly pessimistic about Widget Co.'s long-term prospects. Such investors justify their bargain-hunting by viewing a stock that has declined in price as being available at a discount to its intrinsic or fundamental value. "If you liked the stock at $50, you should love it at $40" is a mantra often quoted by these investors. (To learn about the downside to this strategy, read Value Traps: Bargain Hunters Beware!)
On the other side of the coin are the investors and traders who generally have shorter-term investment horizons and view a stock decline as a portent of things to come. These investors are also likely to espouse trading in the direction of the prevailing trend, rather than against it. They may view buying into a stock decline as akin to trying to "catch a falling knife." Such investors and traders are more likely to rely on technical indicators, such as price momentum, to justify their investing actions. Using the example of Widget Co., a short-term trader who initially bought the stock at $50 may have a stop-loss on this trade at $45. If the stock trades below $45, the trader will sell the position in Widget Co. and crystallize the loss. Short-term traders generally do not believe in averaging their positions down, as they see this as throwing good money after bad.
Advantages of Averaging Down
The main advantage of averaging down is that an investor can bring down the average cost of a stock holding quite substantially. Assuming the stock turns around, this ensures a lower breakeven point for the stock position, and higher gains in dollar terms than would have been the case if the position was not averaged down.
In the previous example of Widget Co., by averaging down through the purchase of an additional 100 shares at $40, the investor brings down the breakeven point (or average price) of the position to $45. If Widget Co. stock trades at $49 in another six months, the investor now has a potential gain of $800 (despite the fact that the stock is still trading below the initial entry price of $50).
If Widget Co. continues to rise and advances to $55, the potential gains would be $2,000. By averaging down, the investor has effectively "doubled up" the Widget Co. position. Had the investor not averaged down when the stock declined to $40, the potential gain on the position (when the stock is at $55) would amount to only $500.
Disadvantages of Averaging Down
Averaging down or doubling up works well when the stock eventually rebounds because it has the effect of magnifying gains, but if the stock continues to decline, losses are also magnified. In such cases, the investor may rue the decision to average down rather than either exiting the position or failing to add to the initial holding.
Investors must therefore take the utmost care to correctly assess the risk profile of the stock being averaged down. While this is no easy feat at the best of times, it becomes an even more difficult task during frenzied bear markets such as that of 2008, when household names such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and Lehman Brothers lost most of their market capitalization in a matter of months. (To learn more, read Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac And The Credit Crisis Of 2008.)
Another drawback of averaging down is that it may result in a higher-than-desired weighting of a stock or sector in an investment portfolio. As an example, consider the case of an investor who had a 25% weighting of U.S. bank stocks in a portfolio at the beginning of 2008. If the investor averaged down his or her bank holdings after the precipitous decline in most bank stocks that year so that these stocks made up 35% of the investor's total portfolio, this proportion may represent a higher degree of exposure to bank stocks than that desired. At any rate, it certainly puts the investor at much higher risk. (To learn more, read A Guide To Portfolio Construction.)
Practical Applications
Some of the world's most astute investors, including Warren Buffett, have successfully used the averaging down strategy over the years. While the pockets of the average investor are nowhere near as deep as deep as Buffett's, averaging down can still be a viable strategy, albeit with a few caveats:
Averaging down should be done on a selective basis for specific stocks, rather than as a catch-all strategy for every stock in a portfolio. This strategy is best restricted to high-quality, blue-chip stocks where the risk of corporate bankruptcy is low. Blue chips that satisfy stringent criteria - which include a long-term track record, strong competitive position, very low or no debt, stable business, solid cash flows, and sound management - may be suitable candidates for averaging down.
Before averaging down a position, the company's fundamentals should be thoroughly assessed. The investor should ascertain whether a significant decline in a stock is only a temporary phenomenon, or a symptom of a deeper malaise. At a minimum, factors that need to be assessed are the company's competitive position, long-term earnings outlook, business stability and capital structure.
The strategy may be particularly suited to times when there is an inordinate amount of fear and panic in the markets, because panic liquidation may result in high-quality stocks becoming available at compelling valuations. For example, some of the biggest technology stocks were trading at bargain-basement levels in the summer of 2002, while U.S. and international bank stocks were on sale in the second half of 2008. The key, of course, is exercising prudent judgment in picking the stocks that are best positioned to survive the shakeout.
The Bottom Line
Averaging down is a viable investment strategy for stocks, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. However, due care must be exercised in deciding which positions to average down. The strategy is best restricted to blue chips that satisfy stringent selection criteria such as a long-term track record, minimal debt and solid cash flows.
by Elvis Picardo
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/average-down-dollar-cost-average.asp#ixzz1jQZn1yyW
Tutorial: The World's Greatest Investors
Conflicting Opinions
There is radical difference of opinion among investors and traders about the viability of the averaging down strategy. Proponents of the strategy view averaging down as a cost-effective approach to wealth accumulation; opponents view it as a recipe for disaster.
The strategy is often favored by investors who have a long-term investment horizon and a contrarian approach to investing. A contrarian approach refers to a style of investing that is against, or contrary, to the prevailing investment trend. (Learn how these investors profit from market fear in Buy When There's Blood In The Streets.)
For example, suppose that a long-term investor holds Widget Co. stock in his or her portfolio and believes that the outlook for Widget Co. is positive. This investor may be inclined to view a sharp decline in the stock as a buying opportunity, and probably also has the contrarian view that others are being unduly pessimistic about Widget Co.'s long-term prospects. Such investors justify their bargain-hunting by viewing a stock that has declined in price as being available at a discount to its intrinsic or fundamental value. "If you liked the stock at $50, you should love it at $40" is a mantra often quoted by these investors. (To learn about the downside to this strategy, read Value Traps: Bargain Hunters Beware!)
On the other side of the coin are the investors and traders who generally have shorter-term investment horizons and view a stock decline as a portent of things to come. These investors are also likely to espouse trading in the direction of the prevailing trend, rather than against it. They may view buying into a stock decline as akin to trying to "catch a falling knife." Such investors and traders are more likely to rely on technical indicators, such as price momentum, to justify their investing actions. Using the example of Widget Co., a short-term trader who initially bought the stock at $50 may have a stop-loss on this trade at $45. If the stock trades below $45, the trader will sell the position in Widget Co. and crystallize the loss. Short-term traders generally do not believe in averaging their positions down, as they see this as throwing good money after bad.
Advantages of Averaging Down
The main advantage of averaging down is that an investor can bring down the average cost of a stock holding quite substantially. Assuming the stock turns around, this ensures a lower breakeven point for the stock position, and higher gains in dollar terms than would have been the case if the position was not averaged down.
In the previous example of Widget Co., by averaging down through the purchase of an additional 100 shares at $40, the investor brings down the breakeven point (or average price) of the position to $45. If Widget Co. stock trades at $49 in another six months, the investor now has a potential gain of $800 (despite the fact that the stock is still trading below the initial entry price of $50).
If Widget Co. continues to rise and advances to $55, the potential gains would be $2,000. By averaging down, the investor has effectively "doubled up" the Widget Co. position. Had the investor not averaged down when the stock declined to $40, the potential gain on the position (when the stock is at $55) would amount to only $500.
Disadvantages of Averaging Down
Averaging down or doubling up works well when the stock eventually rebounds because it has the effect of magnifying gains, but if the stock continues to decline, losses are also magnified. In such cases, the investor may rue the decision to average down rather than either exiting the position or failing to add to the initial holding.
Investors must therefore take the utmost care to correctly assess the risk profile of the stock being averaged down. While this is no easy feat at the best of times, it becomes an even more difficult task during frenzied bear markets such as that of 2008, when household names such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and Lehman Brothers lost most of their market capitalization in a matter of months. (To learn more, read Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac And The Credit Crisis Of 2008.)
Another drawback of averaging down is that it may result in a higher-than-desired weighting of a stock or sector in an investment portfolio. As an example, consider the case of an investor who had a 25% weighting of U.S. bank stocks in a portfolio at the beginning of 2008. If the investor averaged down his or her bank holdings after the precipitous decline in most bank stocks that year so that these stocks made up 35% of the investor's total portfolio, this proportion may represent a higher degree of exposure to bank stocks than that desired. At any rate, it certainly puts the investor at much higher risk. (To learn more, read A Guide To Portfolio Construction.)
Practical Applications
Some of the world's most astute investors, including Warren Buffett, have successfully used the averaging down strategy over the years. While the pockets of the average investor are nowhere near as deep as deep as Buffett's, averaging down can still be a viable strategy, albeit with a few caveats:
Averaging down should be done on a selective basis for specific stocks, rather than as a catch-all strategy for every stock in a portfolio. This strategy is best restricted to high-quality, blue-chip stocks where the risk of corporate bankruptcy is low. Blue chips that satisfy stringent criteria - which include a long-term track record, strong competitive position, very low or no debt, stable business, solid cash flows, and sound management - may be suitable candidates for averaging down.
Before averaging down a position, the company's fundamentals should be thoroughly assessed. The investor should ascertain whether a significant decline in a stock is only a temporary phenomenon, or a symptom of a deeper malaise. At a minimum, factors that need to be assessed are the company's competitive position, long-term earnings outlook, business stability and capital structure.
The strategy may be particularly suited to times when there is an inordinate amount of fear and panic in the markets, because panic liquidation may result in high-quality stocks becoming available at compelling valuations. For example, some of the biggest technology stocks were trading at bargain-basement levels in the summer of 2002, while U.S. and international bank stocks were on sale in the second half of 2008. The key, of course, is exercising prudent judgment in picking the stocks that are best positioned to survive the shakeout.
The Bottom Line
Averaging down is a viable investment strategy for stocks, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. However, due care must be exercised in deciding which positions to average down. The strategy is best restricted to blue chips that satisfy stringent selection criteria such as a long-term track record, minimal debt and solid cash flows.
by Elvis Picardo
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/average-down-dollar-cost-average.asp#ixzz1jQZn1yyW
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